Fund Return 2021-2022

Fund return to 30 November 2021

Fund

Performance

 

1 month

Scheme Year to Date

1 Year

 

 

 

CERS Multi Asset Fund

-0.3%

4.3%

12.9 %

CERS Bond Fund

2.4%

4.5%

-3.2%

CERS Cash Fund

-0.1%

-0.5%

-1.0%

CERS Equity Fund

-0.7%

8.1%

22.6%

CERS Property Fund

0.1%

2.8%

5.1%

CERS Alternative Asset Fund

-0.1%

2.1%

10.0%



Investment Commentary

Provided by Mercer - CERS Investment Adviser

Market Developments

Equity markets rebounded after last month’s rout. Inflation, monetary tightening and supply chain woes continue to weigh on economic growth in the short term, but a strong start to the Q3 earnings season helped make investors look beyond all that. Equity volatility declined significantly over the month. The US outperformed global markets by a significant margin due to its high exposure to growth stocks. Returns for emerging market equities were positive but lower than for developed equities. Strong performance in China was offset by weaker performance across the rest of Asia and in Brazil. Credit spreads did not change much. The US dollar weakened in a slightly more risk on environment and energy prices continued to soar.

Forward looking purchasing manager indices (‘PMI’) held up in most regions and exceeded expectations in the US and UK. Strength in services offset persistent weakness in manufacturing which was more visible in declining industrial production for the US and Germany.

Manufacturing weakness was driven by supply chain disruptions, both on the components and logistics side. The logjam in Californian ports has been getting worse. Efforts to extend the hours of these ports are not necessarily going to solve the problem of truck driver shortages, which may be exacerbated by environmental and labor regulations on the state level.

Limited supply has kept inflation close to the peaks reached earlier this year in most major developed economies. Emerging markets have also seen notably higher inflation. Developed market central banks have therefore continued to prime the market for monetary tightening coming earlier than expected at the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, some emerging market central banks have already begun their hiking cycle.

Fiscal policy is also scaling back its ambitions. In the US, Democrats are nearing an agreement that would allow them to pass both the budget and infrastructure packages, after significantly scaling them back. There were no major surprises in the UK budget where the focus was on fiscal responsibility. 10-year yields rose slightly as tighter monetary policy was priced in, while the yield curve flattened. There was little movement in credit spreads.

There were only limited geopolitical distractions during the month. China Mobile lost its license to operate in the US due to national security concerns, and the UK EU dispute over the regulatory border in Ireland reignited. In a worst case scenario, this could have an impact on trade between the two economic blocs. The Japanese general election yielded an expected victory for the incumbent party.

A return to risk on to some degree led to a generally weaker US dollar, especially against more cyclical currencies such as sterling, the Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.

Energy continued to rally over the month as supply is not increasing at the same pace as demand. Other commodities also performed well, and gold also posted modest gains.

Outlook

We expect economic growth to remain strong, although supply disruptions and near term weakness in China, could lead to near term growth being weaker than we had thought. However, any growth shortfall this year may be offset by better growth next year, especially in China and supply constrained sectors. It seems likely that the impact of COVID on economies and markets will fade, especially in those economies that have vaccinated the most. Inflation, which has risen sharply should moderate, although remain above target for a while. While we share the US Federal Reserve view that much of the inflation increase is temporary, we think that rising wages and higher inflation expectations create the risk of a longer lasting move higher in inflation.

The biggest downside risk we see for markets at the moment is that the Federal Reserve (‘Fed’) and other central banks tighten policy materially more rapidly than currently discounted, which could occur if inflation proves less transitory than hoped. There are also potential economic shocks that could hurt equities including increasingly severe supply chain stresses, the risk of the current energy price pressures developing into an energy crisis in the UK and Europe this winter, and fiscal contraction as stimulus programs fade. Equity valuations leave little cushion for downside surprises, particularly in an environment where monetary policy is becoming less expansive.

Notes

Scheme Year to date performance is the period from 1 June 2021 to the most recent month shown.

1 Year performance is the cumulative performance of the last 12 months to the most recent month shown.

Multi Asset Fund performance assumes no lifestyling.

Performance shown is net of annual management charge.

The investment choices offered by the Trustee will be regularly reviewed and may be varied from time to time.

Before you choose a fund we recommend that you speak to a financial adviser. The CERS Trustee preferred financial adviser is Milestone Advisory DAC. You can contact them or your own financial adviser to assist you to review your investment choices. You can contact Milestone Advisory DAC via the website www.milestoneadvisory.ie, by post: Linden House, 4 Clonskeagh Square, Clonskeagh Road, Dublin 14, D14 FH90, by email info@milestoneadvisory.ie or by phone (01) 4068020. Milestone Advisory DAC t/a Milestone Advisory is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.

If you require further information please contact the CERS Team at info@cers.ie

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